San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Elias DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Justyn-Henry MalloyBatting1-3
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 2Díaz homered to left (352 feet), Bogaerts scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML SD +120 / DET -145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- DET: Elo 46.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.5 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −16 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +27 Elo | SD 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 9–25th of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301547 | Elo rating | 152212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–8 | 15–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–4 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–3 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.