Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walls walked, Díaz scored, Morel to second, Jankowski to third.4–1
- 6Tatis Jr. singled to center, Wade scored.3–1
- 5Mead hit sacrifice fly to right, B. Lowe scored.3–0
- 3Morel doubled to center, Caminero scored.2–0
- 3B. Lowe homered to left center (384 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML TB +110 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- SD: Elo 57.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −6 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +53 Elo | SD 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 2.92nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 12–22nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15442nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–14 | 16–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–4 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.