Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-6, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Thomas reached on infield single to shortstop, Suárez scored on throwing error by shortstop Walls, Thomas to second.7–6
- 11Díaz doubled to right, Aranda scored.7–5
- 11Misner doubled to center, Simpson scored, Misner out stretching at third.6–5
- 8Simpson singled to right, Morel scored, Walls to third.5–5
- 7Carroll homered to center (430 feet), Herrera scored.4–5
- 7Díaz singled to center, Misner scored and Jansen scored.4–3
- 4Tawa doubled to center, Thomas scored.2–3
- 2Herrera grounded out to second, Thomas scored, Tawa to second.2–2
- 2Caballero singled to center, Misner scored, Jansen to second.2–1
- 2Morel homered to left center (393 feet).1–1
- 1Carroll homered to right center (419 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 60%
- ML TB +140 / ARI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -149
- TB +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −5 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +58 Elo | ARI 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 7–413th of 30 |
| 26th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–14 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–2 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.