New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-4
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 2Grisham singled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Escarra to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −6 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +35 Elo | NYY 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 8–822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 147830th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301538 | Elo rating | 150116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 13–14 TB in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.