Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Kristian CampbellBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael FulmerPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rays- Kameron MisnerBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Misner homered to right center (355 feet).1–16
- 5Caminero homered to right center (392 feet).1–15
- 3Morel doubled to left, Aranda scored and Caminero scored.1–14
- 3Aranda hit a ground rule double, Díaz scored and B. Lowe scored, Caminero to third.1–12
- 3Caminero reached on infield single to shortstop, Mangum scored, B. Lowe to second, Díaz to third.1–10
- 3Díaz singled to right, Jansen scored, Mangum to third.1–9
- 3Mangum singled to center, Walls scored, Jansen to third.1–8
- 3Jansen grounded into fielder's choice to third, Morel scored, Walls safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Bregman.1–7
- 3Walls grounded into fielder's choice to second, Aranda scored, Misner out at second, Morel to third.1–6
- 3Campbell homered to left (381 feet).1–5
- 2B. Lowe singled to left, Walls scored and Mangum scored.0–5
- 2Misner homered to center (431 feet), Morel scored.0–3
- 1Díaz homered to center (415 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML BOS +100 / TB -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- TB: Elo 55.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +14 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +41 Elo | TB 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.115th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 14th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 7–519th of 30 |
| 27th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 147230th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–18 TB in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.