Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting5-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz singled to right, Mangum scored.7–4
- 9Walls grounded out to first, Misner scored, Mangum to third.7–3
- 7Bregman homered to center (403 feet).7–2
- 4Misner hit sacrifice fly to left, Caminero scored.6–2
- 4Bregman doubled to left, Duran scored.6–1
- 3Rafaela singled to right, Abreu scored, Story to third.5–1
- 3Bregman homered to right center (366 feet).4–1
- 2Aranda homered to right center (398 feet).3–1
- 2Duran homered to left center (388 feet), Narváez scored.3–0
- 1Bregman singled to left, Devers scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML BOS +110 / TB -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- TB: Elo 55.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.1 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +39 Elo | TB 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 8–514th of 30 |
| 27th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 147330th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–10 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–19 TB in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.