New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rice singled to left, Domínguez scored and Cabrera scored.6–3
- 6Domínguez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Chisholm Jr. scored, Escarra out at second.4–3
- 5Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to second, Goldschmidt scored, Judge out at second, Rice to third.3–3
- 5Cabrera homered to right center (382 feet).2–3
- 3Caminero homered to right center (378 feet), Aranda scored.1–3
- 2Walls hit sacrifice fly to left, Palacios scored.1–1
- 1Judge singled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Rice to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML NYY +100 / TB -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TB: Elo 48.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −6 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +9 Elo | NYY 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 8–722nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 147530th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301536 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–9 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 12–14 TB in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 26.