Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jake MangumBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.1–5
- 8Naylor singled to right, Carroll scored, Smith to third.1–4
- 5Tawa homered to left (387 feet).1–3
- 3Smith homered to right (420 feet), Carroll scored.1–2
- 2Mangum singled to center, Misner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML TB +155 / ARI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 57.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -166
- TB +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +55 Elo | ARI 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 6–418th of 30 |
| 28th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 15113rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–13 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–1 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.