New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rays- Jake MangumBatting1-3
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wells homered to left (344 feet).4–0
- 6Bellinger homered to right center (386 feet).3–0
- 3Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cabrera scored, Judge out at second.2–0
- 1Grisham homered to right (368 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML NYY -175 / TB +145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- TB +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +1 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +22 Elo | NYY 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 9–922nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 148427th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301537 | Elo rating | 150117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–11 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 14–15 TB in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 29.