New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Aranda homered to right center (365 feet), Morel scored.8–10
- 9B. Lowe singled to left, Simpson scored and Walls scored.8–8
- 9Díaz reached on infield single to shortstop, Rortvedt scored, Simpson to third.8–6
- 9Simpson hit a ground rule double, Caballero scored, Rortvedt to third.8–5
- 9Goldschmidt reached on infield single to third, Reyes scored.8–4
- 9Judge singled to left, Cabrera scored, Reyes to third.7–4
- 4Rortvedt singled to left, Misner scored and Caballero scored.6–4
- 4Mangum singled to left, Caminero scored.6–2
- 4Wells hit sacrifice fly to right, Rice scored.6–1
- 4Judge singled to right, Cabrera scored and Domínguez scored, Rice to third.5–1
- 3Díaz singled to left, Caballero scored.3–1
- 2Grisham homered to right center (379 feet).3–0
- 1Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Judge scored.2–0
- 1Goldschmidt grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Rice scored, Wells out at second, Judge to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML NYY -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- TB: Elo 49.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- NYY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +16 | NYY: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +2 Elo | NYY 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–3 | Road vs home | 8–925th of 30 |
| 8th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148228th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301539 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–10 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 14–14 TB in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.