Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Christopher MorelBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Tim TawaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Morel homered to left (395 feet), Caminero scored.7–4
- 10Caminero hit a ground rule double, Aranda scored.5–4
- 9Díaz singled to right, Simpson scored, Walls to third.4–4
- 6Morel doubled to left, B. Lowe scored, Caminero to third.3–4
- 6Caminero grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Díaz scored on fielding error by pitcher Burnes, B. Lowe to second.2–4
- 5Tawa homered to left (385 feet).1–4
- 5Caballero doubled to center, Misner scored.1–3
- 2Carroll grounded out to second, Suárez scored, Thomas to third.0–3
- 2Thomas doubled to right, Moreno scored, Suárez to third.0–2
- 1Naylor singled to right, Carroll scored, Perdomo to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML TB +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +46 Elo | ARI 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 7–518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–14 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–14 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–2 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.