San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bogaerts homered to left (350 feet), Sheets scored.4–7
- 6Wade Jr. doubled to left, Lee and Ramos scored, Wade Jr. safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Machado.4–5
- 6Lee singled to center, Adames scored.2–5
- 4Machado singled to center, Díaz scored.1–5
- 4Arraez hit sacrifice fly to left, Heyward scored.1–4
- 4Adames homered to right center (399 feet).1–3
- 1Iglesias singled to right, Sheets scored and Bogaerts scored.0–3
- 1Bogaerts singled to center, Machado scored, Bogaerts to second, Sheets to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 51%
- ML SF -115 / SD -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- SF: Elo 44.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 3.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +8 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +36 Elo | SD 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.01st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.87th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 12–44th of 30 |
| 5th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 13th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15404th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–14 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–12 | 10–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–15 SD in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.