Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-3
- Jordan HicksPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramos reached on infield single to pitcher, Ramos scored on throwing error by first baseman Burger.2–3
- 4Koss singled to left, Ramos scored.2–2
- 1Flores walked, Adames scored, Chapman to second, Lee to third.2–1
- 1Semien singled to left, Burger scored and Pederson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML TEX +110 / SF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SF: Elo 53.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −19 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +25 Elo | SF 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 8–411th of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15114th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 151513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–15 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–19 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–4 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.