Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wilson singled to center, Urías scored.3–4
- 9Urías singled to center, Schuemann scored on fielding error by center fielder Taveras, Urías to second.3–3
- 4Taveras homered to right center (389 feet).3–2
- 4Heim homered to right (405 feet).2–2
- 4Jung homered to left center (414 feet).1–2
- 3Soderstrom doubled to right, Butler scored and Wilson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML TEX -150 / ATH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 3.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −3 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +33 Elo | TEX 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 3–830th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 145827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–14 | 14–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–16 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 17–11 ATH in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 28.
