Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LatzPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6A. García grounded out to third, Pillar scored, Langford to second.2–5
- 4Langford homered to left center (431 feet).1–5
- 2Wilson walked, Soderstrom scored, Bleday to second, Langeliers to third.0–5
- 1Urshela doubled to right, Wilson scored, Kurtz to third.0–4
- 1Kurtz singled to center, Langeliers scored, Wilson to third.0–3
- 1Langeliers singled to left, Soderstrom scored.0–2
- 1Butler homered to center (425 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 51%
- ML TEX -105 / ATH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- ATH: Elo 48.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −2 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +10 Elo | TEX 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 2–830th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 145627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–13 | 13–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–15 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 17–10 ATH in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 27.
