Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching5.1 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rooker homered to left center (406 feet).8–5
- 8Urías homered to left (376 feet).8–4
- 7Bleday reached on infield single to third, Rooker scored, Andujar to second.8–3
- 6Burger homered to center (417 feet).8–2
- 5Semien homered to center (417 feet), Seager scored and A. García scored.7–2
- 5Smith homered to right center (395 feet).4–2
- 3Butler homered to center (419 feet).3–2
- 3Langford homered to left center (403 feet).3–1
- 2Andujar homered to left center (384 feet).2–1
- 1Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Seager scored.2–0
- 1A. García doubled to left, Smith scored, Seager to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 51%
- ML TEX -105 / ATH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- ATH: Elo 50.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.2 – 5.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +12 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +6 Elo | ATH 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–6 | Road vs home | 2–730th of 30 |
| 10th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Elo rating | 145827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–13 | 13–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–15 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 16–10 ATH in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.
