San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Padres- Elias DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yastrzemski homered to right (385 feet).3–5
- 7Ramos homered to left center (419 feet).2–5
- 6Arraez tripled to right, Díaz scored.1–5
- 6Lee reached on infield single to shortstop, Fitzgerald scored, Adames to second.1–4
- 5Iglesias reached on infield single to pitcher, Arraez scored, Sheets to second, Machado to third.0–4
- 5Machado singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to second.0–3
- 3Díaz homered to left center (375 feet).0–2
- 2Wade singled to right, Sheets scored, Wade to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML SF +120 / SD -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- SD: Elo 57.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -130
- SF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.0 – 3.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +13 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +51 Elo | SD 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.01st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 13–44th of 30 |
| 4th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–15 | 17–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 10–7 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–12 | 11–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–16 SD in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 27.