San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Adam FrazierBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heyward hit sacrifice fly to center, Bogaerts scored, Iglesias to third.9–4
- 8Arraez singled to left, Heyward scored and Lockridge scored.8–4
- 8Lockridge singled to center, Wade scored, Heyward to third.6–4
- 6Frazier homered to right (353 feet).5–4
- 5Valdez grounded out to first, Cruz scored, Reynolds to third.5–3
- 5Sheets singled to right, Machado scored.5–2
- 5Machado singled to right, Arraez scored on throwing error by right fielder Reynolds, Machado to third.4–2
- 5Arraez doubled to right, González scored.3–2
- 4Canario walked, Bart scored, Frazier to second, Hayes to third.2–2
- 4Wade singled to center, Bogaerts scored.2–1
- 4Sheets homered to right center (406 feet).1–1
- 3Reynolds singled to right, Cruz scored, Reynolds thrown out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML SD -135 / PIT +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- SD: Elo 59.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −12 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +65 Elo | SD 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.226th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 7–926th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149717th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301543 | Elo rating | 146524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–12 | 11–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–7 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 12–18 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–5 PIT in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.