New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-5, 3 RBI
- Blade TidwellPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lindor singled to right, Acuña scored and McNeil scored, Taylor to second.5–6
- 6Lindor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McNeil scored on error, Azócar out at second, Lindor safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Barrero.3–6
- 4Contreras singled to right, Burleson scored and Donovan scored, Arenado to third.2–6
- 4Donovan singled to center, Barrero scored and Scott II scored, Burleson to third.2–4
- 3Gorman sacrificed into double play, left to catcher to second to catcher, Donovan scored, Arenado thrown out at home.2–2
- 3Winker hit sacrifice fly to left, Soto scored.2–1
- 2Contreras homered to right center (387 feet).1–1
- 1Nimmo doubled to right, Alonso scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -120 / STL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −1 | NYM: Blade Tidwell (no track record yet) · STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +26 Elo | NYM 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 10–612th of 30 |
| 28th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301543 | Elo rating | 149220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–15 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 12–21 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 13–5 STL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.