New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting4-6, 2 HR, 9 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vientos homered to center (403 feet), Alonso scored and Winker scored.19–5
- 9Winker singled to right, Azócar scored, Alonso to second.16–5
- 8Nuñez singled to left, Call scored, Young to second.15–5
- 8Call singled to right, Adams scored and Tena scored.15–4
- 8Lowe homered to left center (390 feet).15–2
- 8Wood homered to right center (438 feet).15–1
- 8Acuña singled to center, Nimmo scored.15–0
- 8McNeil grounded out to second, Vientos scored, Nimmo to third.14–0
- 8Nimmo doubled to right, Alonso scored and Winker scored, Vientos to third.13–0
- 7Nimmo homered to right center (406 feet), Soto scored, Alonso scored and Winker scored.11–0
- 7Alonso singled to center, Lindor scored, Soto to third.7–0
- 6Nimmo homered to center (410 feet), Winker scored and Vientos scored.6–0
- 5McNeil homered to right center (420 feet).3–0
- 2McNeil hit sacrifice fly to right, Nimmo scored.2–0
- 2Alvarez doubled to left, Vientos scored, Nimmo to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 61%
- ML NYM -175 / WSH +145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -156
- WSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +14 | NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +32 Elo | NYM 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 9–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 4th of 301537 | Elo rating | 146825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–13 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 9–19 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 19–10 WSH in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 29.