Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Josh BellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Call scored.3–4
- 8Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, Westburg scored.3–3
- 7O'Neill hit sacrifice fly to right, Mullins scored, Rutschman to third.2–3
- 3Rutschman singled to right, Holliday scored, Urías to third.1–3
- 1Bell homered to right (391 feet), Ruiz scored.0–3
- 1Wood homered to right center (431 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML BAL -145 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +14 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 6–419th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 146725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–13 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 15–7 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–3 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.