Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting1-2
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ruiz doubled to right, García Jr. scored.0–7
- 6Crews homered to center (429 feet).0–6
- 5Ruiz singled to center, García Jr. scored.0–5
- 5García Jr. singled to center, Wood scored on error, García Jr. safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Mullins.0–4
- 2Tena scored on Kremer wild pitch.0–3
- 2Tena scored on Kremer wild pitch.0–3
- 1Lowe homered to right center (411 feet), Wood scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML BAL -130 / WSH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −5 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +30 Elo | BAL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 5–420th of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301511 | Elo rating | 146425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–12 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 15–6 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–2 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.