New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Luis TorrensBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Abrams scored on error, García Jr. safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Alonso, Wood to second.7–8
- 9Abrams singled to right, Young scored.7–7
- 7Adams homered to right center (405 feet), Tena scored and Call scored.7–6
- 7Call singled to center, Bell scored, Tena to second.7–3
- 7Bell singled to center, García Jr. scored.7–2
- 5Torrens doubled to right, Marte scored, Torrens to third.7–1
- 2Crews homered to left (376 feet).6–1
- 2Marte grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Soto scored, Alonso out at second.6–0
- 1Acuña singled to right, Torrens scored.5–0
- 1Torrens singled to center, Alonso scored and Marte scored on throwing error by center fielder Crews, Torrens to third.4–0
- 1Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to center, Soto scored.2–0
- 1Vientos hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored, Soto to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML NYM -155 / WSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 57.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +53 Elo | NYM 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.7 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 8–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301539 | Elo rating | 146725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–12 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders | 8–19 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 19–9 WSH in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 28.