Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Josh BellBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Mullins singled to center, O'Hearn scored.2–1
- 5O'Hearn singled to left, Laureano scored, O'Hearn to second.1–1
- 2Bell singled to center, Rosario scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML BAL -105 / WSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 47.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −15 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +20 Elo | BAL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 7–415th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 146825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–14 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 15–8 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–4 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.