New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4
- Brad LordPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 2Alvarez homered to right (358 feet), Winker scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML NYM -190 / WSH +160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 57.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +49 Elo | NYM 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 8–514th of 30 |
| 27th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301537 | Elo rating | 146925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–12 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 8–18 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 18–9 WSH in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 27.