Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jorge BarrosaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 1 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barrosa grounded out to second, Smith scored, Hampson to third.3–8
- 8Grichuk scored on error, Gurriel Jr. safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Vientos.2–8
- 5Barrosa doubled to right, Moreno scored, Tawa to third.1–8
- 4Alonso homered to left (416 feet).0–8
- 3Taylor singled to left, Acuña scored.0–7
- 3Marte homered to left (386 feet), Alonso scored.0–6
- 2Lindor homered to left (366 feet), Azócar scored.0–4
- 2Azócar singled to right, Taylor scored.0–2
- 2Taylor doubled to left, Acuña scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML ARI +120 / NYM -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -130
- ARI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +3 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +42 Elo | NYM 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.02nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 12–11st of 30 |
| 5th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 148429th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15413rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–15 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 17–11 | 10–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–10 NYM in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.