Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting4-4, 4 HR, 5 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Olson scored on Martinez wild pitch.8–7
- 10Olson scored on Martinez wild pitch.8–7
- 9Suárez homered to left (383 feet).7–7
- 8Harris II doubled to center, Albies scored and Fairchild scored.7–6
- 8Albies singled to center, Olson scored, Fairchild to third.5–6
- 7White homered to left (418 feet), Albies scored.4–6
- 6Suárez homered to center (443 feet).2–6
- 4Suárez homered to left center (411 feet), Moreno scored.2–5
- 4Moreno singled to left, Perdomo scored and Smith scored.2–3
- 2Suárez homered to left center (418 feet).2–1
- 2Murphy homered to left center (388 feet).2–0
- 1Ozuna homered to left (443 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML ATL +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +29 Elo | ARI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 7–722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15105th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15276th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–14 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–12 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 9–5 ARI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.