Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moreno doubled to right, Suárez scored.8–2
- 8Riley singled to left, White scored, Allen to second.8–1
- 8White singled to left, Albies scored.7–1
- 8Albies doubled to right, Murphy scored.6–1
- 6Allen singled to right, Harris II scored, White to third.5–1
- 6Olson scored on error, White safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Suárez, Harris II safe at third on error.4–1
- 4Barrosa singled to center, Suárez scored, Tawa to second.3–1
- 2Riley singled to left, Verdugo scored.3–0
- 2Verdugo doubled to left, White scored.2–0
- 2White doubled to left, Harris II scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -125 / ARI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 47.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +1 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +20 Elo | ARI 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–11 | Road vs home | 7–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15104th of 30 |
| 11th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–14 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–5 ARI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.