Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Alex VerdugoBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ozuna doubled to left, Allen scored.4–6
- 7Naylor doubled to center, Perdomo scored and Smith scored.3–6
- 7Verdugo singled to center, Baldwin scored, Allen to third.3–4
- 7Allen singled to center, White scored, Baldwin to second.2–4
- 5Perdomo homered to right (396 feet).1–4
- 5Verdugo doubled to right, White scored.1–3
- 4Thomas doubled to left, Naylor scored, Thomas to third, Suárez thrown out at home.0–3
- 2Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Suárez scored.0–2
- 1Perdomo grounded out to second, Carroll scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML ATL -115 / ARI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 47.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +20 Elo | ARI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–11 | Road vs home | 7–825th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15114th of 30 |
| 10th of 301526 | Elo rating | 15269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–14 | 12–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–5 ARI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.