Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-1, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mets- Tyrone TaylorBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WaddellPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Winker grounded out to first, Lindor scored, Alonso to second, Soto to third.4–3
- 9Taylor homered to left center (397 feet).4–2
- 9Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to center, Thomas scored.4–1
- 9Barrosa hit sacrifice fly to center, Moreno scored, Thomas to third.3–1
- 7Perdomo singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored and Barrosa scored.2–1
- 3Vientos homered to left (371 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / NYM -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 44.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Huascar Brazoban: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +40 Elo | NYM 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.01st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 13–11st of 30 |
| 6th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 148529th of 30 |
| 12th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15432nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–16 | 17–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 18–11 | 11–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–11 NYM in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.