Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tawa homered to left center (366 feet).4–2
- 8Soto homered to left center (399 feet).3–2
- 7Perdomo homered to right center (388 feet).3–1
- 6Soto homered to left center (391 feet).2–1
- 5Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored, Naylor to third.2–0
- 4Thomas singled to center, Suárez scored on error, Thomas safe at second on throwing error by second baseman McNeil, Gurriel Jr. safe at third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML ARI +135 / NYM -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 57.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -145
- ARI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +13 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +50 Elo | NYM 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.02nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–6 | Road vs home | 13–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 148629th of 30 |
| 10th of 301526 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–16 | 17–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 18–12 | 11–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–11 NYM in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.