St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-3
- Matthew LiberatorePitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Reds- Jose TrevinoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8McLain singled to left, Friedl scored.1–9
- 7Espinal singled to left, De La Cruz scored and Marte scored.1–8
- 7Marte singled to right, Friedl scored, Marte to second, De La Cruz to third.1–6
- 6Steer homered to left (384 feet).1–5
- 4Trevino hit sacrifice fly to right, Espinal scored.1–4
- 4Lux grounded into fielder's choice to second, Marte scored, Steer out at second, Espinal to third.1–3
- 3Arenado reached on infield single to shortstop, Donovan scored on fielding error by shortstop De La Cruz, Arenado to second.1–2
- 2Trevino homered to left (371 feet), Lux scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML STL -120 / CIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- STL: Elo 46.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +27 Elo | CIN 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 7–825th of 30 |
| 9th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149221st of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–15 | 17–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–14 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 15–14 CIN in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 29.