New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Acuña hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.9–3
- 7Alvarez singled to right, Taylor scored.8–3
- 7Nimmo homered to right center (407 feet).7–3
- 5Alvarez singled to right, Vientos scored, McNeil to third.6–3
- 5Vientos grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop second, Nimmo scored, Vientos to first on error by first baseman Contreras, Winker out at second.5–3
- 5Alonso homered to center (417 feet), Soto scored.4–3
- 3Contreras singled to left, Winn scored, Donovan to second.2–3
- 3Scott II scored on throwing error by catcher Alvarez.2–2
- 3Scott II scored on throwing error by catcher Alvarez.2–2
- 2Alvarez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Winker scored, McNeil out at second.2–1
- 2McNeil grounded into fielder's choice to first, Nimmo scored, Vientos out at second, Winker to third.1–1
- 1Winn reached on infield single to shortstop, Nootbaar scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -120 / STL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 3.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +28 Elo | NYM 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 10–59th of 30 |
| 29th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 4th of 301540 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–15 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–21 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 12–5 STL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.