New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Starling MarteBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Scott II doubled to center, Pozo scored.4–5
- 3Contreras singled to center, Winn scored, Arenado to third.4–4
- 3Arenado reached on infield single to third, Nootbaar scored, Winn to third.4–3
- 3Alvarez singled to right, Vientos scored, Marte to third.4–2
- 3Marte singled to right, Alonso scored and Soto scored, Vientos to third.3–2
- 3Alonso singled to left, Taylor scored, Soto to second.1–2
- 2Burleson homered to right center (402 feet), Arenado scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML NYM -155 / STL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 3.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +14 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +11 Elo | NYM 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 11–610th of 30 |
| 27th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–16 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 13–21 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 13–6 STL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.