Cleveland Guardians at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Nolan JonesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arias hit sacrifice fly to right, Santana scored.9–10
- 7Tena doubled to center, Crews scored and Ruiz scored.8–10
- 7Crews doubled to left, Lowe scored, Ruiz to third.8–8
- 7Ruiz singled to right, Call scored, Lowe to third.8–7
- 7Martínez reached on infield single to shortstop, Naylor scored, Jones out at home on runner's fielder's choice.8–6
- 7Arias singled to left, Manzardo scored and Santana scored, Naylor to second.7–6
- 7Manzardo grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Noel scored, Ramírez out at second.5–6
- 7Ramírez reached on infield single to shortstop, Kwan scored, Noel to third.4–6
- 7Noel doubled to left, Martínez scored, Kwan to third.3–6
- 6Young singled to center, Ruiz scored on error and García Jr. scored on error, Young safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Martínez.2–6
- 5Call singled to center, Young scored.2–4
- 3Wood homered to right (374 feet), Abrams scored.2–3
- 2Jones homered to right (422 feet).2–1
- 1Lowe singled to center, Abrams scored, Wood to second.1–1
- 1Schneemann scored, Manzardo to second, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by Irvin.1–0
- 1Schneemann scored on Irvin wild pitch, Manzardo to second on wild pitch by Irvin, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by Irvin.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -120 / WSH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 9–719th of 30 |
| 26th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 15th of 301506 | Elo rating | 146824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–20 | 19–16 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–2 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.