Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Abrams doubled to left, Call scored and Young scored.4–1
- 7García Jr. homered to right (379 feet).2–1
- 2Stephenson homered to left (365 feet).1–1
- 2García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Lowe scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML WSH -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 40.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 4.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +3 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +69 Elo | CIN 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 9–921st of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148827th of 30 |
| 24th of 301465 | Elo rating | 150216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–16 | 19–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–7 CIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.