Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Johan RojasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stott scored on Finnegan wild pitch.6–7
- 9Stott scored on Finnegan wild pitch.6–7
- 9Rojas hit sacrifice fly to right, Bohm scored, Stott to third.6–6
- 9Lowe homered to right (355 feet), Wood scored and Rosario scored.6–5
- 9Wood doubled to center, Abrams scored.3–5
- 8Turner scored on Ferrer wild pitch, Harper to second on wild pitch by Ferrer.2–5
- 8Turner scored on Ferrer wild pitch, Harper to second on wild pitch by Ferrer.2–5
- 8Turner doubled to right, Rojas scored.2–4
- 7Abrams doubled to right, Young scored.2–3
- 6García Jr. homered to center (420 feet).1–3
- 3Rojas homered to center (421 feet).0–3
- 1Schwarber homered to left center (389 feet), Turner scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML WSH +160 / PHI -190
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +10 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +98 Elo | PHI 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–9 | Road vs home | 9–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 25th of 301465 | Elo rating | 152411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–14 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 11–18 PHI in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 29.