Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Amed RosarioBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Realmuto homered to left center (397 feet).2–7
- 6Kepler homered to right (359 feet).2–6
- 5Castellanos singled to center, Harper scored.2–5
- 5Rosario grounded into fielder's choice to second, Young scored, Abrams out at second.2–4
- 4Stott singled to center, Realmuto scored, Rojas to third.1–4
- 3Lowe doubled to left, Young scored, Wood to third.1–3
- 1Schwarber homered to right (394 feet), Stott scored and Turner scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 69%
- ML WSH +205 / PHI -250
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.6%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -218
- WSH +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +82 Elo | PHI 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 68.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.9 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–10 | Road vs home | 10–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 25th of 301464 | Elo rating | 152412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–14 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 11–19 PHI in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 30.