Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Josh BellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 6Friedl hit sacrifice fly to center, Stephenson scored.1–6
- 5Bell homered to right center (387 feet).1–5
- 3Stephenson doubled to left, Steer scored and Espinal scored.0–5
- 2McLain grounded into fielder's choice to first, Stephenson scored, Friedl out at second, Dunn to third.0–3
- 1Espinal doubled to left, De La Cruz scored and McLain scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 63%
- ML WSH +160 / CIN -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 60.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +72 Elo | CIN 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–11 | Road vs home | 8–821st of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301464 | Elo rating | 150415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–15 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–6 CIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.