Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brad LordPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-4
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Castellanos reached on infield single to pitcher, Turner scored, Harper to third.4–2
- 6García Jr. stole home, Crews stole second.4–1
- 6García Jr. stole home, Crews stole second.4–1
- 6García Jr. stole home, Crews safe at second on throwing error by catcher Marchán.4–1
- 6García Jr. singled to left, Ruiz scored.3–1
- 6Ruiz safe at third on fielding error by first baseman Harper, Lowe scored on error.2–1
- 6Lowe singled to right, Abrams scored.1–1
- 5Bohm singled to center, Kepler scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML WSH +145 / PHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -156
- WSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 5.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −23 | WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +54 Elo | PHI 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–11 | Road vs home | 11–45th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 25th of 301462 | Elo rating | 152611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–15 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 11–20 PHI in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 31.