Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Amed RosarioBatting3-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz doubled to center, McLain scored.11–6
- 9Lowe singled to left, Abrams scored, Rosario to third.11–5
- 8Steer scored, Marte safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Rosario, Fraley safe at second on error, Marte out at second on runner's fielder's choice.10–5
- 8Adams singled to left, Call scored and Lowe scored, Crews to second.10–4
- 7Young sacrificed to pitcher, Crews scored.8–4
- 6Fraley homered to right center (376 feet).7–4
- 6Lowe singled to left, Wood scored.7–3
- 6Rosario homered to left center (408 feet), Young scored and Abrams scored.6–3
- 4Rosario doubled to center, Young scored.3–3
- 2Callihan singled to center, Fraley scored.2–3
- 1Steer doubled to left, De La Cruz scored and Friedl scored.2–2
- 1García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Wood scored.2–0
- 1Call singled to left, Abrams scored, Lowe to second, Wood to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 62%
- ML WSH +155 / CIN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 59.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +69 Elo | CIN 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 9–822nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148925th of 30 |
| 26th of 301462 | Elo rating | 150614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–16 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–7 CIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.