Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Larnach scored on Clase wild pitch, Jeffers to third on wild pitch by Clase.2–4
- 9Larnach scored on Clase wild pitch, Jeffers to third on wild pitch by Clase.2–4
- 8Lee homered to right center (374 feet).1–4
- 7Naylor homered to right center (398 feet), Santana scored and Arias scored.0–4
- 7Santana reached on infield single to pitcher, Ramírez scored on throwing error by pitcher López.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML MIN -110 / CLE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −5 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +15 Elo | CLE 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.921st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–11 | Road vs home | 9–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Elo rating | 150216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–14 | 12–17 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 12–18 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–18 CLE in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 28.