Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching2.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lee doubled to right, France scored.1–5
- 3Neto homered to left center (396 feet).1–4
- 2Correa singled to left, Buxton scored.0–4
- 1Bride singled to left, Correa scored.0–3
- 1France singled to center, Buxton scored, Correa to second.0–2
- 1Correa singled to left, Jeffers scored, Buxton to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML LAA +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.5 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +6 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +74 Elo | MIN 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 7–621st of 30 |
| 25th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 148728th of 30 |
| 28th of 301445 | Elo rating | 148723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–15 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–12 | 11–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–9 MIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.