Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David FestaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Buxton homered to left center (414 feet), Bader scored.3–6
- 6Larnach homered to right (347 feet).3–4
- 5Lee singled to left, France scored, Jeffers to second.3–3
- 5Quero grounded into fielder's choice to second, Palacios scored on error, Benintendi to second, Benintendi safe at third on fielding error by second baseman Keaschall.3–2
- 5Benintendi singled to center, Dalbec scored, Palacios to third.2–2
- 5Baldwin scored on Sands wild pitch, Palacios to second on wild pitch by Sands, Dalbec to third on wild pitch by Sands.1–2
- 5Baldwin scored on Sands wild pitch, Palacios to second on wild pitch by Sands, Dalbec to third on wild pitch by Sands.1–2
- 4Larnach singled to center, Julien scored.0–2
- 3France singled to center, Keaschall scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 70%
- ML CHW +225 / MIN -275
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.1%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -238
- CHW +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.3 – 5.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +3 | CHW: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +108 Elo | MIN 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 5–522nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301401 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–11 | 10–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–24 MIN in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 30.