Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting3-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin singled to right, Vaughn scored, Quero to third.3–10
- 8Narváez homered to left center (353 feet).2–10
- 7Story homered to left (365 feet), Devers scored and Bregman scored.2–9
- 6Palacios grounded out to pitcher, Benintendi scored, Sosa to second.2–6
- 4Rafaela homered to left (406 feet), Narváez scored.1–6
- 4Benintendi homered to right (383 feet).1–4
- 3Refsnyder doubled to left, Story scored.0–4
- 1Story homered to center (427 feet), Devers scored and Bregman scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 67%
- ML CHW +195 / BOS -235
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.7%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -207
- CHW +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 5.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −5 | CHW: Martin Perez: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +98 Elo | BOS 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 65.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–6 | Road vs home | 4–319th of 30 |
| 26th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 148627th of 30 |
| 30th of 301403 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–9 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 9–7 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.