Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Casas singled to center, Bregman scored, Campbell to second, Abreu to third.3–4
- 7Robert Jr. homered to left (375 feet), Meidroth scored.3–3
- 7Meidroth singled to center, Palacios scored.1–3
- 5Devers homered to left center (389 feet), Rafaela scored and Duran scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 74%
- ML CHW +270 / BOS -340
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 67.7%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -286
- CHW +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 5.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +17 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +128 Elo | BOS 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 71.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–7 | Road vs home | 5–316th of 30 |
| 26th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 148129th of 30 |
| 30th of 301401 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–10 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 9–8 BOS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.