Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Matt ThaissBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thaiss hit by pitch, Baldwin scored, Robert Jr. to second, Quero to third.8–4
- 8Vaughn homered to left center (405 feet), Robert Jr. scored.7–4
- 7Quero singled to center, Palacios scored and Vargas scored.5–4
- 7Baldwin sacrificed to first, Sosa scored, Vargas to second, Palacios to third.3–4
- 2Duran singled to right, Sabol scored.2–4
- 1Abreu homered to right (387 feet), Devers scored and Bregman scored.2–3
- 1Thaiss homered to right (382 feet), Robert Jr. scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 71%
- ML CHW +230 / BOS -285
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 64.6%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -244
- CHW +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 5.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −14 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +105 Elo | BOS 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–8 | Road vs home | 6–310th of 30 |
| 26th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 147830th of 30 |
| 30th of 301400 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–10 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 9–9 BOS in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.