Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Edgar QueroBatting3-4
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Maton grounded out to second, Sosa scored, Taylor to second, Baldwin to third.2–4
- 8Larnach homered to center (434 feet), Keaschall scored.1–4
- 3Keaschall scored on error, Larnach safe at first on throwing error by catcher Quero.1–2
- 2France singled to right, Larnach scored, Correa to second.1–1
- 2Amaya hit sacrifice fly to right, Quero scored, Baldwin to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 69%
- ML CHW +205 / MIN -250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.7%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -218
- CHW +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 5.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +4 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +113 Elo | MIN 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.425th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 4–527th of 30 |
| 26th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 30th of 301402 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–10 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–23 MIN in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 29.