Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi homered to right (358 feet).2–4
- 3Campbell singled to right, Bregman scored and Story scored, Abreu to second.1–4
- 3Story singled to center, Duran scored, Bregman to second.1–2
- 2Refsnyder homered to left center (397 feet).1–1
- 1Quero grounded out to second, Maton scored, Benintendi to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 72%
- ML CHW +240 / BOS -300
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 65.5%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -255
- CHW +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 5.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +111 Elo | BOS 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 6–417th of 30 |
| 26th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 147330th of 30 |
| 30th of 301403 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–10 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 10–9 BOS in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.