Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-3
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vargas homered to left center (422 feet).3–0
- 4Palacios walked, Vargas scored, Dalbec to second, Taylor to third.2–0
- 2Sosa homered to left center (416 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 66%
- ML CHW +185 / MIN -225
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -197
- CHW +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.0 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −12 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +91 Elo | MIN 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 3.525th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–11 | Road vs home | 6–521st of 30 |
| 27th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149123rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301400 | Elo rating | 148823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–12 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–25 MIN in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 31.